Reflections from the York County 2024 Primary
May 26th, 2024
York, PA – It has been roughly a month and a half since April’ s General Primary. The dust has finally settled, and the victorious campaigns shift their focus towards the General Election in November and the chaotic campaign season ahead. Part of the candidates/campaigns process of looking ahead is reflecting on the primary election season; understanding the lessons learned, diving into data analysis from the results, and critiquing the messaging where needed. It is a very tedious process, but if done right, will allow candidates to have an advantage in planning for the latter half of the year. One thing for certain is that there is a lot to talk about moving forward. Here at YOCO Live, we have identified a few talking points that we are sure are being discussed behind closed doors. Needless to say, after reviewing the results and data here in York County, buckle up for an exciting General Election Season.
Low voter participation in the Presidential Race
The first thing that came to mind when analyzing the results was the 27% voter participation rate across both parties. To clarify what voter participation is, this is the amount of votes cast for a particular race relative to the amount of registered voters in the county. Since Pennsylvania (PA) has a closed Primary, each race can be independently analyzed among a partisan voting population. This is important because it can be used to analyze enthusiasm for a particular race or be a gauge of the current messaging of the Political Party.
For Republicans, voter participation in the presidential primary in York County has not been this low since John McCain won in 2008, according to historical data from the PA Department of State. In that year, only 22% of registered Republicans in York participated compared to the 27.6% this year (See Figure 1). Even the less dynamic Mitt Romney Primary election in 2012 drew more engagement from Republican Voters, with nearly 32% of registered Republicans voting in the race. The York County Republican Primary has been seeing traditionally higher numbers of participation since the entrance of Donald Trump to the scene in 2016. In that year alone, 51% of voters participated in voting in the Presidential Primary Election. That momentum carried into the 2020 Primary Election where Republicans saw close to a 34% participation rate.
There could be multiple reasons for such low participation this year. The first being voter fatigue. After the historic high energy of 2016, many people thought it could not be replicated in 2020, but they were wrong. With lock downs, law and order, and foreign affairs on Republican voters’; minds, we saw another year of high participation and ensuring that their voice is heard. After gut-wrenching statewide losses for Republicans in 2020 and 2022, many voters felt like they needed to disassociate from politics.
Another concern is that many Republican voters are apprehensive in trusting the system or if their vote will even count. After Act 77 passed in 2019, a campaign push was made by the Republican National Committee (RNC) to push mail-in voting along with traditional in-person voting during the 2020 election. At the time, due to the 139 national election fraud cases (Heritage Foundation 2024) since the 2018 mid-term election, trust in the electoral process was at an all-time low. Many pushed back against the short-lived RNC initiative, but the long-lasting ripple effect created apprehension in the trust of the electoral system that has trickled into every election since. One of the RNC/local county initiatives will need to bring back the trust in the system and have a larger push for mail-in voting.
The final reasoning is Donald Trump’s journey to win back a portion of the party. A population of Republicans jumped ship onto the Ron DeSantis train and the Nikki Haley train due to them feeling the need for the party to move away from the era of Trump. The voters not only across York County but the nation voted, and the Donald Trump era will be here for another election cycle. The former President is already busy winning the 17% of the county back that decided not to vote for him and reach across towards other groups and parties to bring them on board.
2024 York County Republican Voter Participation
As for the Democratic Party, this is the lowest voter participation they have seen since the Obama Era in 2012 when he received just 12% of the voting population, or 12,077 voters. Granted, this is the first re-election Presidential campaign that the Democratic Party of York has seen since then, but there are other contributing factors to this low turnout. This year, only 27% of the eligible voting population voted in the Democratic Primary, or just 26,469 voters. 70,196 potential voters were absent from voting in this election (Figure 2).
First, the current support for President Joe Biden is at a 2-year low, with his approval rating around 38% during the time of the Primary Election, now dropping to 36% in mid-May. Many questions have been raised about the decisions President Biden has been making economically, through his foreign policy, and the message America is portraying globally. Issues that many York County citizens hold dear are haunting the president as he approaches November’s General Election.
Within his own party and against the GOP, he is fighting his record in the Middle East. Many of his supporters are pushing an anti-Israel agenda as Israel continues to fight Hamas and other Iranian-backed regimes. The rest of the world remembers President Biden’s withdrawal from Iraq that resulted in 13 US Service Member Deaths and 170 Afghan Civilians at Abbey Gate, an incident that could have been avoided at the strategic level (White House/State Department Level), as well as the forfeiting of $7 billion worth of equipment, including helicopters and night vision. All eyes are on him as we currently pull troops and 100 million dollars’ worth of equipment out of Niger.
Historically, primaries during re-election campaigns do not garner the enthusiasm that a contested primary typically draws. What is most surprising is that the under-ballot elections didn’t increase participation any further, as the Attorney General’s race had a wide field with multiple candidates throughout the state, including former 10th Congressional District Candidate Eugene DePasquale.
2024 York County Democrat Voter Participation
In conclusion, both parties need to figure out a way to spark enthusiasm further in York County. If Republicans want a shot to win statewide races, they need to traditionally carry the York County popular vote at around 63-69%. If Democrats want to keep Pennsylvania a traditionally Blue State, they will need to bring on board third-party or unaffiliated voters to reduce the Republican majority in the county.
Dave Sunday is the man!
After securing 40,811 (93%) votes across York County and 620,515 (70.36%) votes across the state, Dave Sunday will be representing the Republican Party as the Republican Nominee for Attorney General. After securing the State Committee Endorsement, Dave has been working hard not only in York County but across Pennsylvania to win votes. As York County’s District Attorney, Dave reduced crime by 30% in his first term, all while reducing the prison population by 40% since its peak. Dave is self-made and a US Navy Veteran. He will have to disprove the stigma that a York County Republican can’t win Pennsylvania. The last to try was Scott Wagner, and he lost to Governor Tom Wolf in 2018.
Democrats Dominated Republicans in the Mail-In Vote
Since 2020, Democrats have made a significant effort to push the vote by mail. The National Democrat Training Committee has been actively training volunteers to conduct mail-in ballot push and chase programs. Their state-of-the-art application allows them to have targeted universes for these coordinated pushes. Pursuing a mail-in ballot chase program gives them an advantage over a traditional Election Day Operation, providing an additional window of a few weeks to push votes rather than just a singular day.
Out of the 26,469 Democratic presidential votes in York County, 13,357, or slightly more than 50%, voted by mail. 12,938 voters showed up on Election Day to vote, while 174 voted by Provisional Ballot. The Mail-In vote is up 4% from the mid-term General Primary, and it is suspected that there will be another heavy push come this fall (Figure 3).
Out of the 44,973 votes cast in the Republican Presidential Primary, 7,234 voted by mail. This is only 4.4% of the entire Republican voter population or 16% of the voters in the General Primary. This comes after a last-ditch effort to have a “Bank the Vote”; drive in the Municipal General Election last fall. Last fall, York County Republicans drew around 12% of the mail-in vote. Though there has been progress since the last election, Republicans not only in York County but across the state will need to garner further support from Mail-In voting if they hope to see an increase in the popular vote. The RNC and the State GOP have already pledged to hammer a mail-in ballot push (Figure 4).
2024 Republican Primary Vote Types
2024 Democratic Primary Vote Types
The Republican State Legislature experienced a relatively calm primary after three incumbent primaries in the last election cycle.
In 2022, there was partisan chaos. Two State Representative giants, Stan Saylor and Keith Gillespie, with a combined experience of over 50 years, lost their seats to political outsiders, showing a changing attitude towards civil service in the county. This led to the entrance of Joe D’Orsie and Wendy Fink. Additionally, Representative Kate Klunk was challenged by another political newcomer who eventually lost in the primary election. Moving into 2024, many speculated that there may be more contested primaries for incumbents, but the opposite occurred. The only contested race was a five-way primary for a vacated seat as Representative Dawn Keefer moved to run an uncontested race for Mike Regan’s State Senate seat, as he did not seek re-election.
In the 92nd district, Marc Anderson, an educator by trade, won in a close five-way primary, narrowly defeating Zachary Kile by 500 votes with a total of 3,623 votes. He will face Democratic candidate Dan Almoney. The 92nd district holds the largest partisan advantage, with nearly 60% of registered voters being Republican and 24% being Democrats.
Marc Anderson has been praised by many of his constituents for not accepting large donations and not being beholden to anyone besides the taxpayers. He has stayed true to his promises thus far on the campaign trail, only campaigning after the school day is complete as he feels obligated to his students and the taxpayers.
Pennsylvania Senate candidates are garnering their respective party support.
Incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. is seeking his fourth term as a Senator, well-funded with $24 million raised in 2024 alone. He is gearing up for one of the toughest re-election bids of his career. Senator Casey has deep roots in Pennsylvania, as his father was the 42nd Governor of Pennsylvania. He championed the anti-abortion wing of the Democratic Party and is known for the Supreme Court Case “Planned Parenthood vs. Casey”. During his primary election in York this year, he received 98% of the Democratic vote (25,227 votes), the highest among all statewide candidates and the only one without a challenger on the ballot.
Dave McCormick is now gearing up for his challenge. After the State GOP unanimously endorsed Dave McCormick, he became the clear favorite among the party. As an Army Ranger and West Point wrestler, he has been active on the campaign trail, stopping at high school and college wrestling tournaments, as Pennsylvania is currently the bedrock of USA Wrestling. Dave is currently in a neck-and-neck race against Senator Casey, within the margin of error to win. He aims to flip Pennsylvania red, as it has not been since Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
As the summer progresses, the campaign season will ramp up. York County always plays a critical role in deciding who wins Pennsylvania. Many political experts believe that whoever wins Pennsylvania for President this year, wins the office. To win Pennsylvania, making a difference in York is crucial. York has traditionally been a conservative stronghold but has vulnerabilities that Republicans need to address before the Democratic Party exploits them. Regardless, 2024 will be an interesting ride, so buckle up!
YOCO Live will be here covering Election 2024 in York County, providing in-depth analysis of local races and political landscapes that shape the county.
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1.) “Voter Fraud Map: Election Fraud Database.” The Heritage Foundation. Accessed
May 26, 2024. https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud.
2.) “What Does the Country Think of Biden?” Reuters. Accessed May 26, 2024.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/.