Revealing Shifts: Voter Trends in York County, PA Uncovered!
June 11th, 2024
York, PA - The Pennsylvania (PA) Department of State has recently released their voter registration statistics from the past week (June 3rd – June 10th), revealing intriguing trends in York County.
Every week, the PA Department of State provides data on voter registration, including new applications and changes in party affiliation. This data is crucial for understanding voter trends and gauging reactions to campaign events with long-term implications.
It has been 10 days since Donald Trump’s verdict, which had significant ramifications for the upcoming election. Following this verdict, the Trump campaign managed to raise an impressive $53 million within 24 hours, primarily through small-dollar donations, a quarter of which were from first-time donors. This brought his May fundraising total to $141 million, outpacing Joe Biden for two consecutive months.
But how has this verdict affected voter registration in York County? The answer might surprise you. Here are some statistics from the past week:
Third Parties Surpass Democrats and Republicans in York County
A remarkable trend indeed. Over a three-week period (from May 20th to June 10th), neither Democrats nor Republicans dominated registrations in the county. Instead, the "Other" category saw a notable increase of 765 registrations within two weeks, surpassing both Democrats and Republicans combined. The "Other" category includes Non-Affiliated, Libertarians, Green Party, and other third-party options, traditionally performing significantly lower than Republicans and Democrats.
Presumably, disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats gravitated toward this category, reflecting a growing trend of people distancing themselves from singular party affiliations. Democrats bore the brunt of this shift, with 112 registered Democrats switching parties to "Other" compared to 120 Republicans. Despite Democrats being the minority in the county at just under 31%, while Republicans sit at 52% of total registered voters, this shift impacts them more as they continue to decline.
Third-party options have risen since the General Primary of 2020 by nearly 2%, or 8,386 voters. A robust third-party option, such as Robert Kennedy, likely attracts these voters away from Republicans and Democrats. York has a history of supporting third-party candidates, as evidenced by Ross Perot's success in 1992, cutting away 20.67% of the vote from the county, equivalent to 27,743 votes, and leading to a Bill Clinton victory in Pennsylvania. Similar scenarios occurred in 1996 and 1980, further illustrating the county's openness to third-party alternatives.
Republicans Make Gains
Republicans have added just under 500 more voters in the last three weeks, with nearly 40% of that increase coming from party-to-party switches. This includes 92 Democrats switching parties in the last week and 97 from the "Other" category. This marks an increase of over 1% from the General Primary in 2020, totaling 15,049 voters. As the General Election approaches, expect a surge in voter registration efforts across the county.
It's worth noting that Republican voter makeup constitutes about 52% of the county's voters. Traditionally, they receive a 7%-15% bump from Non-Affiliated or others come General Election time.
Democrats Continue to Decline in Voter Registration
Democrats have only added an additional 122 voters, accounting for just 8.8% of the total updated registrations in the last three weeks. This includes 54 Republican and 50 other voter registration changes from last week. This reflects the ongoing struggle of Democrats to attract new voters in the county. Since the Primary Election of 2020, Democrats have seen their minority shrink from 33.44% in the General Primary to 30.8% now, losing 640 voters in the process. This decline is partly due to party switches and record updates following the General Election.
Democrats will be focused on increasing voter registration throughout the rest of the campaign season while continuing efforts to boost election turnout through mail-in voting.
Throughout the election cycle, here at YOCO Live, we will closely examine these statistics, keeping you up to date with the full picture of the political environment in the county.
New Party Registration for York County, PA
Total Voting Population of York County, PA
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